SINGAPORE — Oil prices climbed above $100 a barrel on Wednesday, September 9, for the first time since July as renewed US-Iran fighting, sharply reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure intensified fears over global supplies.
Brent crude futures rose $2.15, or 2.2%, to $100.07 a barrel by 0721 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained $1.70, or 1.83%, to $94.73.
The move matters beyond commodity markets. Prolonged $100 oil can raise petrol, diesel, aviation and freight costs, potentially feeding inflation and complicating interest-rate decisions.
Brent crude: $100.07 a barrel
WTI crude: $94.73 a barrel
Brent daily move: +2.2%
Brent rise since early August: about 25%
Recent Hormuz flows: below 2 million bpd
U.S. claim: 10 Iranian tankers destroyed over the past week
Iran claim: 10 ships targeted, including 2 U.S. vessels and 8 tankers
CENTCOM position: No U.S. Navy warship was hit
Previous Brent conflict peak: about $126 in April
Market focus: Traders are watching tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, further attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and whether Brent can hold above $100. A move toward $120 remains a severe-disruption scenario, not a guaranteed forecast.
Hormuz flows are the bigger warning signal
The $100 milestone is grabbing attention, but the more important number is the amount of crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the week before fighting resumed on August 30, roughly 8 million to 9 million barrels per day were moving through Hormuz. More recently, flows have fallen to below 2 million bpd.
Visual comparison uses 9 million bpd as the earlier reference level.
The reversal has been rapid. Earlier hopes of improved Gulf shipping had helped push Brent toward $86 during the Hormuz negotiations. Renewed fighting has changed that outlook.
US-Iran fighting raises direct tanker risk
The latest rally followed another escalation between Washington and Tehran. The US military said it destroyed multiple Iranian tankers after Iran attempted to strike a US Navy warship with ballistic missiles.
The conflict has disrupted energy markets since February 28. Brent climbed to approximately $126 in April before retreating as ceasefire hopes improved. Prices strengthened again after a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran fell apart and hostilities resumed.
Houthi attacks put another oil route at risk
Iran-backed Houthis have also attacked four Saudi cities, wounding more than 70 people and setting oil installations ablaze.
That creates an additional problem because the Red Sea has been an important alternative route while Hormuz flows have been restricted. Disruption across both corridors could force longer journeys, delay deliveries and raise tanker insurance and shipping costs.
Global supply already faces a major decline
The International Energy Agency has estimated that global oil supply will decline by an average of around 4.3 million barrels per day in 2026.
Higher output from non-OPEC producers including the United States, Canada and Guyana provides a buffer, but cannot immediately replace a prolonged loss of millions of barrels from major Gulf producers.
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Could Brent really reach $120?
Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC are among banks that have raised crude-price forecasts as supply risks increase.
A move above $120 is possible under a severe scenario involving prolonged disruption to Gulf production and exports, but it is not a guaranteed forecast.
From $100.07, Brent would need to rise roughly 20% to reach $120. A return to April’s approximately $126 peak would require a gain of about 26%.
An earlier Goldman Sachs oil forecast highlighted how severe Hormuz disruption could reshape Brent and WTI expectations.
$100 oil could reach household budgets
Sustained high crude prices can eventually increase refinery costs, petrol and diesel prices, jet fuel, freight and manufacturing expenses. UK natural gas prices have also reached their highest level in about three and a half years this month.
That puts inflation back in focus. Higher energy costs can lift consumer prices while slowing economic growth, leaving central banks with more difficult interest-rate decisions.
Three numbers matter from here
Markets will now be watching Hormuz flows below 2 million bpd, Brent’s $120 risk level and the previous $126 peak.
A recovery in tanker traffic could reduce the geopolitical premium. Continued restrictions combined with further attacks on Saudi or other Gulf infrastructure would increase the risk of another sharp move higher.
After a roughly 25% rise since early August, Brent’s next move will depend less on the symbolism of $100 and more on how much Middle East oil can actually reach the global market.
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