Drivers across the Greater Toronto Area are bracing for another jump in fuel costs as global oil markets react to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Analysts warn that gasoline prices in Toronto could surge sharply in the coming days, pushing pump prices to levels not seen in years and raising concerns about wider economic ripple effects.
Energy analyst Dan McTeague, president of Canadians for Affordable Energy, says gasoline prices across Toronto and the GTA are expected to rise again beginning Friday. According to McTeague, the average price at the pump could climb two cents per litre to about $1.489 on Friday before a larger increase arrives over the weekend.
The bigger move may come on Saturday, when gasoline prices are forecast to jump another six cents per litre, pushing the cost of regular fuel to roughly $1.56 per litre. If the increase materializes, it would mark one of the highest gasoline price levels Toronto drivers have seen in a long time.
Fuel prices climbing rapidly across Toronto
The projected increase follows a rapid rise in fuel costs during the past week. McTeague says gasoline prices have already surged by roughly 17 cents per litre in just five to six days, highlighting how quickly global oil market volatility is being reflected at local pumps.
Diesel prices have climbed even faster. Over the same period, diesel has increased by approximately 40 cents per litre, placing significant pressure on transportation companies and supply chains that rely heavily on the fuel.
More increases may still be on the way. Diesel is expected to rise four cents per litre on Friday, followed by a potential 14-cent jump on Saturday. If those projections hold, diesel prices could move above $2 per litre across parts of the GTA.
According to McTeague, these price increases are being driven largely by surging global oil prices linked to geopolitical instability and supply concerns in key energy regions.
Middle East conflict pushing crude oil higher
Global oil markets have reacted sharply to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has raised fears of supply disruptions and increased market volatility.
Benchmark U.S. crude oil recently surged 8.5% to settle at $81.01 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude climbed 4.9% to $85.41 per barrel. Brent prices are now hovering near their highest levels since 2024.
Rising crude prices typically translate quickly into higher gasoline and diesel costs because refiners and fuel distributors pass those increases along the supply chain. As a result, drivers often feel the impact at the pump within days.
Energy markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, and analysts say prices could remain volatile as long as uncertainty surrounding the conflict persists. Updates on global oil markets are frequently tracked by organizations such as the International Energy Agency, which monitors supply and demand trends worldwide.
Diesel surge could ripple across the economy
While drivers tend to focus on gasoline prices, McTeague says the sharp rise in diesel may ultimately have the biggest impact on the broader economy.
Diesel powers much of the global transportation network, from freight trucks and cargo ships to trains and heavy equipment. Because of that, rising diesel costs can push up the price of nearly everything consumers buy.
McTeague describes diesel as a “global workhorse” fuel and warns that sustained price increases could cascade through multiple sectors.
Higher diesel costs could force transportation companies, logistics providers, and airlines to introduce fuel surcharges in order to offset rising operating expenses. Those additional costs are often passed along to businesses and consumers.
“It’s going to cascade into other parts of the economy,” McTeague said, noting that the impact will go far beyond the immediate shock drivers experience at the pump.
Airlines and shipping companies may introduce fuel surcharges
With diesel prices climbing rapidly, many transportation companies are closely monitoring fuel markets. If prices remain elevated through next week, McTeague expects airlines and freight companies to begin implementing fuel surcharges.
Such surcharges are commonly used when fuel prices spike quickly, allowing companies to offset rising operating costs without immediately raising base ticket or shipping prices.
However, the additional fees can still filter through the economy by increasing the cost of travel, shipping, and consumer goods.
For households already dealing with higher food and energy bills, the latest surge in fuel prices could add another layer of financial pressure.
Toronto gas prices could climb much higher
Looking ahead, McTeague believes gasoline prices could climb significantly higher if geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.
If the conflict intensifies or global oil supplies tighten further, Toronto drivers could eventually see gasoline prices rise toward $1.80 or even $1.90 per litre in the GTA.
Diesel prices could also continue climbing, with projections suggesting levels between $2.20 and $2.30 per litre are possible under certain market conditions.
For now, drivers across Toronto and the surrounding region are being advised to prepare for another round of increases over the coming days. The next few weeks may determine whether the recent surge becomes a temporary spike or the start of a longer period of elevated fuel prices.
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