Melbourne weather today is turning sharply wetter, with a Severe Weather Warning for heavy, locally intense rainfall affecting parts of Victoria as rain bands push across the state and the risk of flash flooding rises.
The warning covers Mallee, Wimmera, South West and parts of the Central, Northern Country and North Central forecast districts, with conditions expected to become more active from late Sunday and into Monday as a broader rain area develops with embedded thunderstorms.
Severe rain warning and flood risk across western and central Victoria
Forecast guidance points to bursts of heavy rain capable of triggering fast-moving local flooding, especially where storms intensify or repeatedly track over the same areas. In the warning area, six-hour rainfall totals of 30–50 mm are possible. In pockets where rainfall becomes more intense, six-hour totals of 50–70 mm may occur, particularly across the western districts.
While Melbourne may not sit in the most intense core at all times, the city remains exposed to periods of steady rain, heavier showers and the type of downpours that can overwhelm drainage quickly. In urban areas, even short spells of intense rainfall can lead to water pooling on roads, reduced visibility and sudden flooding around low-lying underpasses.
Melbourne conditions: rain increasing with a humid feel
Melbourne started the day with mild temperatures but a noticeably humid feel, with rain increasing through the morning and showers persisting on and off. In these setups, the timing and intensity can shift quickly: rainfall may ease temporarily during the day, then ramp up again late afternoon into the evening as the broader rain band deepens.
For commuters and anyone heading out, the key risk is not just “rain” but rain rate—how quickly it falls. A half-hour burst during peak movement periods can create disruptions that feel disproportionate to the day’s total rainfall, particularly if drains are blocked by leaves or debris.
What is driving the wet change
This event is being driven by a moist flow feeding into a developing rain band, with thunderstorms embedded within the broader area of rain. As the system evolves and a cooler change approaches, rain can broaden and intensify overnight and into Monday, increasing the chance of locally intense rainfall over parts of the state.
Thunderstorms within a rain band can be especially disruptive because they can dump a large share of a day’s rain in a short time. That is why warnings often focus on six-hour totals and flash-flood potential rather than the full-day figure alone.
Areas that may be impacted
Locations mentioned as potentially affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Maryborough, Swan Hill and Stawell. For residents and travellers in these regions, conditions can change rapidly, particularly after dark when heavier rainfall becomes more likely.
If you’re travelling between Melbourne and western Victoria, allow extra time and plan for reduced visibility, water on the road surface and sudden downpours. Regional routes can also be impacted by minor flooding in dips and crossings, even when rivers are not at major flood levels.
How to stay safe during heavy rainfall
When a severe rainfall warning is active, the safest approach is to assume local flooding is possible even if your street looks fine right now. A few simple steps can reduce risk:
Drive cautiously and slow down in heavy rain, especially at night. Water depth can be deceptive and road edges can soften quickly. If a road is covered, do not attempt to cross. Never drive through floodwater.
Check drainage around your home if safe to do so. Clearing leaves from gutters and stormwater grates can help prevent pooling, but avoid doing this during intense rain or thunderstorms.
Keep an eye on updates as warnings can be expanded, extended or upgraded depending on how the rain band develops. The most reliable real-time updates and warning text are available via the Bureau of Meteorology warnings and alerts hub.
What to expect through tonight and into Monday
Rainfall is expected to become more likely and more widespread later Sunday and overnight, with showers and possible thunderstorms continuing into Monday as the system progresses. Even if Melbourne sees only moderate rain at times, nearby districts can experience short-lived but intense falls that lead to flash flooding, road closures and travel disruption.
The practical takeaway for Melbourne is to plan for a wet day with occasional heavier bursts, and to treat the evening and overnight period as the higher-risk window if the rain band strengthens.
