Oaxaca is experiencing a relatively calm winter, marked by stable temperatures and a noticeable decline in rainfall. Weather officials say this is due to a strong high-pressure system positioned over the southern Gulf of Mexico, which is preventing cold fronts from moving farther south.
According to Manuel Maza Sánchez, the state’s civil protection and risk management coordinator, most cold fronts this season are being held over northern and northwestern Mexico. As a result, Oaxaca is only seeing light flows of cold air, mainly during early morning hours in mountainous areas, as well as in the Central Valleys and the state capital.
Rainfall that affected regions such as the Cuenca, La Cañada, and the Mixteca through late November has now largely disappeared. Clear skies and stronger sunlight are becoming more common. However, officials are monitoring a stronger cold front expected around January 10, which could cause a brief drop in temperatures.
So far this season, 24 of the 48 cold fronts forecast for Mexico have already occurred, and six more are expected during January. While temperatures are not expected to be as cold as in previous months, officials say higher elevations could see slight warming, with February likely bringing cooler conditions again.
Authorities are also warning that reduced rainfall—estimated at about 10% below normal in January—raises the risk of forest and grassland fires as the region enters the dry season. With the rainy period ending, dry vegetation and warmer daytime conditions make fires more likely.
In addition to scientific forecasts, Oaxaca continues to observe the traditional practice of “cabañuelas,” an ancestral method used to estimate weather patterns for the entire year based on the first 12 days of January. While some modern meteorologists reference this tradition, officials stress that it should be viewed only as a general guide, as weather conditions can change due to active atmospheric systems.
Civil protection authorities emphasize the importance of prevention and public awareness during this period. Residents are urged to stay informed about weather conditions, understand wildfire risks, and follow official guidance to protect both lives and property.
Overall, Oaxaca is entering a period of clear skies, moderate daytime temperatures, and controlled cold fronts—creating stable winter conditions, but with active alerts in place to minimize potential risks.
