Europe’s aviation sector is facing an escalating fuel crisis, with airports warning that flight disruptions could begin within three weeks if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz do not resume. The alert comes as jet fuel prices surge and airlines worldwide start cutting routes, raising fears of widespread cancellations just ahead of the peak summer travel season.
Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has flagged “increasing concerns” over jet fuel availability, particularly for smaller airports with limited reserves. The industry body said that without a stable reopening of the critical Gulf shipping route, a systemic shortage across the European Union could soon become unavoidable.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital artery for global energy flows, handling a significant portion of aviation fuel exports from the Gulf. Europe typically sources more than half of its imported jet fuel from the region, with a large share shipped directly through the strait. The disruption has already forced buyers into a global scramble for alternative supplies, intensifying competition with Asia.
Prices surge as supply routes tighten
The market has reacted sharply. Benchmark European jet fuel prices have climbed to record levels, touching $1,838 per tonne, compared with around $831 before the conflict began. Industry data shows prices have risen by roughly 138% year-on-year in Europe, while global levels have more than doubled, highlighting the severity of the supply shock.
Unlike crude oil, jet fuel markets have fewer alternative routes and limited flexibility. While some crude shipments can bypass Hormuz via pipelines, refined aviation fuel lacks such infrastructure, making supply chains more fragile. The final Gulf cargoes that departed before the disruption are only now arriving in European ports, with shipments landing in hubs such as Rotterdam, Copenhagen and the UK in recent days.
Airlines have already begun adjusting operations. Several carriers globally, including those in Europe and Asia-Pacific, have reduced flights and increased passenger charges to offset rising fuel costs. Ryanair has indicated it may cut up to 10% of its flights, while smaller regional airlines have already suspended certain routes due to mounting pressure.
Smaller airports face the biggest risk
The risk is particularly acute for regional airports, many of which operate with fuel reserves covering just four to five weeks. These facilities depend heavily on regular deliveries, leaving them exposed to even short-term disruptions. Analysts warn that less profitable leisure routes are likely to be the first to face cuts, as airlines prioritise high-demand and high-yield connections.
ACI Europe has urged policymakers to step in, warning that relying on market forces alone is insufficient. The organisation has called for coordinated EU action, including joint fuel purchasing and temporary easing of import restrictions to stabilise supply. It has also highlighted the lack of a unified monitoring system for jet fuel availability across the bloc.
The potential impact stretches far beyond airlines. Aviation contributes around €851 billion to Europe’s GDP annually and supports roughly 14 million jobs, making it a critical pillar of the region’s economy. Any prolonged disruption risks spilling into tourism, trade and regional connectivity, particularly in areas heavily dependent on seasonal travel.
Even in a scenario where the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, industry leaders caution that recovery will not be immediate. Restoring supply chains and refinery output could take months, leaving prices elevated in the medium term. This has renewed calls to accelerate investment in sustainable aviation fuel production as a longer-term buffer against geopolitical shocks.
For now, governments say airlines continue to operate normally, but behind the scenes the pressure is building. As fuel inventories tighten and costs climb, the coming weeks are likely to determine whether Europe’s aviation sector can absorb the shock — or whether passengers will begin to feel the disruption firsthand. According to data tracked by IATA, the global jet fuel market is already under significant strain, underscoring how quickly the situation could escalate.
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