ROCHESTER, N.Y. — A burst of Arctic air is keeping the region locked in a deep freeze, and lake-effect snow is set to add quick-hitting travel trouble today, with another round possible tomorrow. Temperatures are staying painfully low, and wind chills will make it feel even colder if you’re stepping outside.

Highs today are expected to remain in the upper teens to 20s, with wind chill values hovering in the single digits at times. If you’re out running errands, commuting, or waiting at a bus stop, plan for true mid-winter conditions: heavy layers, a warm hat, gloves, and something to protect your face from the wind.

What’s happening today

A band of lake-effect snow is expected to develop near midday and sweep from north to south across parts of the Rochester area. The setup favors a brief but intense window of moderate to heavy snow, followed by lighter lake snow showers and flurries later in the day.

In practical terms, that means conditions can change fast: a road that looks merely wet at 11 a.m. can turn slick and snow-covered by lunchtime, especially on elevated surfaces like bridges, ramps, and overpasses. Visibility can also drop quickly when the heavier snow passes through, which is when spin-outs and chain-reaction slowdowns tend to happen.

Snow totals today should be relatively modest overall, but lake-effect is all about location. Some areas may see only a light coating, while others pick up a more meaningful burst. The highest totals are most likely north of the Thruway, with lighter accumulations closer to the Finger Lakes.

Travel impact: short bursts, big slowdowns

Even small snowfall amounts can cause outsized travel issues when temperatures are this cold. Salt can be slower to work, and packed snow can polish into a slick layer if traffic compresses it before plows get through. If you’re driving during the midday band, give yourself extra time and extra space — the worst crashes in lake-effect events often happen in sudden “white wall” moments where drivers don’t realize how quickly conditions have deteriorated.

For the latest official advisories and timing details, keep an eye on the National Weather Service office that covers the region. You can check updates directly at weather.gov/buf.

Tomorrow: a clipper restarts the lake effect

Tomorrow, a fast-moving “clipper” system is expected to reinvigorate lake-effect snow. The morning commute currently looks less likely to be affected, but the evening commute is the bigger question mark. The main uncertainty is how far a snow band off Lake Erie can reach toward Rochester, how intense it becomes, and exactly when it arrives.

If the trend shifts toward a stronger band lining up during peak drive time, impacts could be much more noticeable — reduced visibility, rapidly snow-covered roads, and spotty but significant slowdowns on key routes. If you have flexibility, consider wrapping up travel earlier in the afternoon and avoiding the highest-impact window if it develops.

For live road-condition maps and major incident updates, New York’s 511 travel site is a helpful stop before you leave: 511ny.org.

A brief break, then a big temperature swing

After the lake-effect pattern cools down, Tuesday is expected to bring a relative break in snow, with temperatures nudging closer to the freezing mark. That can mean a little melting in the afternoon — but it can also mean refreezing at night, so watch for icy patches after sunset.

By Wednesday, the pattern turns notably milder, with highs near 40°F, and Thursday may push into the mid-40s. That kind of warm-up can quickly soften and thin out snow cover, but it also sets up slushy roads, clogged storm drains, and plenty of puddles.

Rain is possible Thursday night, followed by a sharp turn back to winter as temperatures plunge again on Friday. If the cold air arrives quickly behind the rain, any leftover moisture can freeze fast — a classic recipe for early-morning black ice on side streets and untreated surfaces.

What to do now

• Dress for wind chills, not just the air temperature (hat + gloves + warm boots make a real difference).
• If you drive during the midday band, slow down and increase following distance — visibility can drop quickly in lake-effect bursts.
• Charge your phone before heading out and keep a winter kit in your car (blanket, flashlight, snacks, and a small shovel).
• Check official updates for advisories and band timing before commuting, especially tomorrow afternoon/evening.

The bigger picture

While the next few days bring dramatic ups and downs — snow, a thaw, rain, then a plunge — longer-range guidance suggests temperatures may average slightly above normal over the next week or two. That doesn’t eliminate winter risk; it often means more “messy” setups with mixed precipitation and quick freeze-thaw cycles.

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