Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures fall as Trump orders Hormuz blockade; oil surges above $100

Wall Street looked set for a weaker open on Monday after a fresh geopolitical shock rattled risk sentiment and pushed energy prices sharply higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) were at 47,879.00, down 250.00 points or 0.52% in early trade, while S&P 500 futures (ES=F) fell roughly 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) dropped about 0.7%. The move came after President Donald Trump said the United States would begin the process of blockading ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route, following the collapse of US-Iran negotiations.

The market reaction was immediate because the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Oil traders quickly moved to price in the risk of supply disruption. Brent crude futures (BZ=F) jumped 7.84% to $102.66 a barrel after rising as much as 9% earlier to near $104. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude (CL=F) traded above $103 per barrel, up more than 7%. That spike in oil put inflation fears back on the table just as investors had started to regain confidence after a ceasefire-driven rally last week.

For equity markets, the concern is straightforward. Higher crude prices can squeeze consumers, raise transportation and manufacturing costs, and complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. Traders had been hoping for a period of calm after the fragile temporary ceasefire helped fuel a strong rebound in stocks, but the latest developments reversed much of that relief trade. The renewed surge in oil also revived worries that global growth could slow if energy costs remain elevated for any length of time.

Trump said the blockade process would begin at 10 a.m. ET on Monday, adding a new layer of uncertainty to an already tense geopolitical backdrop. Markets initially reacted with a much sharper sell-off, with Dow futures reportedly down as much as 580 points before paring losses. That recovery off the worst levels suggested some investors were still leaving room for the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough, but the overall tone remained defensive as the session approached.

Oil shock hits stocks as investors brace for inflation pressure

Energy has become the center of the market story again. A move in Brent toward $104 and WTI above $103 is large enough to immediately change how traders think about inflation, consumer spending, airline margins, transport costs, and corporate guidance. Analysts are now watching whether crude holds these gains through the week or eases if diplomatic channels reopen. Either way, Monday’s price action was a reminder that geopolitical headlines can overwhelm ordinary risk models in a matter of hours.

The pressure was also visible in the broader market setup. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) last closed at 6,816.89, down 7.77 points or 0.11% on April 10, and futures signaled another cautious start as investors recalibrated for a more volatile backdrop. Fund managers have been reluctant to make aggressive directional bets in recent weeks because of rapid swings tied to the Iran conflict. Monday’s action reinforced that caution, with traders moving back toward defensive positioning while keeping an eye on the path of oil.

At the same time, the market is stepping into a crucial earnings week. Major US banks are set to kick off first-quarter reporting, giving investors a fresh test of whether corporate America can absorb the latest macro shock. Goldman Sachs (GS) was first up, and its stock had closed at $907.80, up $4.08 or 0.45%, before trading at $910.48 in premarket action, up $2.30 or 0.25%. Other key names on deck include JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), and Morgan Stanley (MS).

Analysts still expect the big six US banks to post a solid quarter overall, with collective profits projected to climb about 5% from a year earlier. Across the wider market, forecasts suggest S&P 500 earnings growth of roughly 12%, though that would still mark the weakest pace since the second quarter of 2025. The problem for investors is that headline earnings may matter less than management commentary if executives start warning that higher oil and geopolitical instability are changing the second-quarter outlook.

TSMC, banks, and big-cap earnings now share the spotlight

Beyond banks, investors are also watching the semiconductor space closely. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), the world’s largest producer of advanced AI chips, remained in focus ahead of its earnings report later this week. The stock closed at $370.60, up $5.11 or 1.40%, though it was indicated lower in premarket trading at $367.50, down $3.08 or 0.83%. TSMC is expected to report net profit of T$542.6 billion, or about $17.1 billion, for the January-March quarter, reflecting a potential 50% jump in profit as demand for advanced chips and packaging continues to boom.

That contrast captures the current market perfectly. On one side, the artificial intelligence build-out continues to support companies tied to data centers, advanced chips, and digital infrastructure. On the other, a sudden oil shock can still hit index futures, revive inflation worries, and pressure sentiment across sectors in a single session. TSMC’s market capitalization, now near $1.6 trillion, underlines how strong AI-linked demand has become, but even those growth stories now have to compete with a rapidly shifting macro and geopolitical picture.

Investors heading into this week are balancing two powerful forces: a still-resilient earnings outlook and a renewed surge in geopolitical risk. That means every major data point matters more than usual, from oil prices and bond yields to bank guidance and semiconductor demand. For now, the tape is saying the same thing clearly: risk appetite has cooled, energy is back in charge, and Wall Street is entering earnings season with much less certainty than it had just a few days ago. For broader market context, investors will also be watching coverage from Yahoo Finance as the session develops.