Western Australia is bracing for another major weather threat as Ex-Tropical Cyclone Narelle is forecast to re-form offshore, bringing up to 200mm of rain, 100km/h wind gusts and a growing risk of severe cyclone conditions later this week. While the system has temporarily weakened into a tropical low after crossing the Northern Territory, forecasters warn this could be a short-lived phase before it regains strength over the Indian Ocean.
The system is currently positioned near the WA/NT border over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf and is moving west at around 16 kilometres per hour. It is expected to track across the east Kimberley region, delivering heavy rain, damaging winds and flash flooding risks before moving offshore where redevelopment is highly likely.
Why Cyclone Narelle is strengthening again
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, Narelle weakened after crossing land but still retains strong structure. Once it returns to warm ocean waters, conditions are expected to support rapid redevelopment into a tropical cyclone as early as Wednesday.
Meteorologists say there is a “high chance” the system will intensify offshore, with some projections suggesting it could strengthen into a Category 3 or even Category 4 cyclone later in the week as it moves along the WA coast.
This type of cross-continent system is relatively rare and increases uncertainty, making the track and intensity harder to predict. However, the risk window is widening, and authorities are closely monitoring its movement.
Warning zones declared across Kimberley
Authorities have already issued weather alerts across northern Western Australia. A warning zone is currently in place between Mitchell Plateau and the WA/NT border, while a broader watch zone extends across the Kimberley coast from Beagle Bay to areas south-west of Mitchell Plateau.
Forecasters have warned of gale-force winds with gusts reaching up to 100km/h as the system moves through the region. Even though it is not expected to redevelop into a cyclone while over land, the conditions remain dangerous.
The Department of Fire and Emergency Services has confirmed it is actively monitoring the situation and coordinating with remote communities, tourism operators and emergency teams to ensure readiness.
200mm rain threat raises flash flooding risk
Rainfall totals of up to 200 millimetres are expected across parts of the northern Kimberley, significantly increasing the risk of flash flooding. Low-lying areas, river crossings and remote access roads are particularly vulnerable, with conditions expected to deteriorate quickly once heavy rain bands move through.
Authorities have issued strong warnings for residents and travellers not to drive through floodwaters, as rapidly rising water levels can make roads impassable within minutes. Flash flooding remains one of the most dangerous aspects of tropical systems, even when they are not at full cyclone strength.
Communities in the region have already experienced flooding earlier this year, which may worsen the impact of additional rainfall as the ground remains saturated.
Remote communities on alert but prepared
Kalumburu, Western Australia’s northernmost settlement, lies within the warning zone and is expected to be directly impacted as the system passes through. Local leaders say the community is well prepared, having already dealt with multiple flooding events this season.
Emergency supplies have been secured, although deliveries such as food barges have been delayed due to the weather system. While fresh produce may run low temporarily, authorities say there are sufficient packaged supplies to manage through the disruption.
Officials also highlighted that sandy soil conditions in parts of the region may help water drain more quickly, but the volume of rainfall could still lead to localized flooding.
Storm path could impact Pilbara, Midwest and beyond
Once Narelle moves offshore, attention will shift to its projected path along the Western Australian coastline. Forecast models suggest it could track westward before potentially curving back toward the coast later in the week.
This raises the risk for key regions including the Pilbara and Midwest coastlines, with the possibility of a stronger cyclone impacting these areas if redevelopment occurs rapidly.
Some long-range projections even indicate a potential threat toward Perth by the weekend, although forecasters stress that this scenario remains uncertain and will depend on how the system evolves over the coming days.
From Category 4 to tropical low and back again
Narelle has already demonstrated its power, previously making landfall as a Category 4 system on the Queensland coast before weakening as it crossed the Northern Territory. Despite losing intensity over land, the system has retained enough structure to potentially rebuild once it reaches open water again.
Forecasts suggest the system could redevelop into a Category 1 cyclone initially, before strengthening further to Category 3 or even Category 4 strength as it moves over the Indian Ocean later this week.
This rapid weakening and re-intensification cycle is not uncommon for tropical systems but makes forecasting more complex and increases the importance of continuous updates.
What happens next
Over the next 24 to 48 hours, the tropical low will continue moving across the Kimberley, bringing heavy rainfall, strong winds and flooding risks. By midweek, it is expected to move offshore, where conditions could allow it to rapidly intensify.
By late week or the weekend, Western Australia could face a re-energised cyclone system, with impacts depending heavily on its track and strength.
For now, residents across northern and coastal WA are being urged to stay alert, follow official updates and prepare for rapidly changing conditions. Even though Narelle has weakened for now, the biggest threat may still be ahead as it prepares for a potential comeback over open waters.
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