TORONTO — The TSX kept climbing Tuesday as materials stocks regained the spotlight and a steadier tone in U.S. markets helped keep risk appetite intact. By mid-afternoon, Canada’s benchmark index was higher by a triple-digit move, reinforcing the market’s recent rhythm: strength in established, cash-generating sectors that tend to benefit when global growth expectations firm.
The S&P/TSX Composite was last seen at 33,911.50, up 135.00 points or 0.40% during the session. Earlier, the index was up 0.1% at 33,814.85 by 10:28 a.m. ET, and it had also been reported up 54.26 points at 33,830.76 in late-morning trading as buying broadened across Toronto.
Materials leadership returns to the foreground
Materials-linked names were a key support, aligning with a broader Reuters poll theme: strategists increasingly see the TSX’s sector mix as a feature, not a bug, in the current cycle. The median forecast from 23 equity strategists and portfolio managers surveyed in a February 13–23 poll was for the TSX to rise 5.6% to 35,650 by the end of 2026, moving beyond the record closing high posted last Friday and well above the 32,125 mark expected in a November poll.
Beyond 2026, the same set of projections points to the index reaching 36,000 by mid-2027, implying a gain of 6.6% from current levels. That kind of milestone target tends to pull attention in Canada because it frames the TSX as a market built for the “slow but steady” bid—especially when the macro backdrop favours dividends, pricing power, and commodity sensitivity.
Rotation into established sectors shapes the tape
A key driver behind the more optimistic outlook is sector rotation. The TSX is weighted heavily toward financials, industrials, and commodity-linked stocks—groups that can perform well during a strengthening industrial cycle. By contrast, technology shares represent just 8.5% of the TSX’s market capitalization, leaving the index less dependent on the kind of mega-cap growth concentration that can dominate U.S. benchmarks.
That composition matters when investors start looking for earnings durability and valuation breathing room. Even on a day when tech gained traction, the broader Canadian story remained tied to “old economy” leadership, particularly materials. In the Reuters report, the materials sector had gained 26% since the start of the year after nearly doubling in 2025 on soaring gold, silver, and copper prices.
Tuesday’s market moves, stock by stock
Inside the session, leadership was mixed but constructive. Reuters highlighted that gains in industrials and technology helped offset losses elsewhere. Shares of Thomson Reuters climbed 10.7%, helping lift the industrials group, which was up 0.71%. The TSX technology subindex rose 0.6% after sliding more than 3% in the previous session, mirroring software strength on Wall Street after a fresh wave of AI-product headlines.
At the same time, not every corner participated. The Reuters snapshot showed the gold sector down 0.5% as the precious metal retreated after a run of gains, while the financials group was also under pressure. That push-pull kept the day’s narrative focused on rotation: money flowing into select leaders rather than an all-in surge across every segment.
Currency and commodities add cross-currents
Outside equities, the Canadian dollar softened. The loonie traded at 72.97 cents US, compared with 73.05 cents US on Monday. Even modest currency moves can influence sector performance on the TSX, especially for companies with U.S.-dollar revenues or globally priced commodities.
Commodity benchmarks added a second layer of contrast. The April crude oil contract was down US$0.42 at US$65.89 per barrel. The April gold contract was down US$63.70 at US$5,161.90 an ounce. With oil and gold lower, the TSX’s ability to hold a firm advance signaled that Tuesday’s bid was not solely dependent on a broad commodity spike—materials strength and broader North American sentiment were doing heavy lifting.
Record-high forecasts, plus a caution flag
The same Reuters poll that sketched a path to additional record highs also included a reminder that markets rarely move in straight lines. Of 18 respondents who addressed near-term risk, 11 said a correction was likely or very likely over the next three months, citing trade uncertainty, stretched bank valuations, and recent volatility. That tension—bullish targets paired with a correction watch—often becomes the hook that keeps readers checking intraday levels and sector leadership.
For investors following the TSX day to day, Tuesday’s message was clear: the index can climb even with uneven sector performance, as long as leadership persists in the groups that matter most to Canada’s benchmark. When materials and industrials are firm, and U.S. markets cooperate, the path toward fresh highs looks less theoretical and more like a trend with traction.
For broader context on listed companies and market structure in Canada, see the Toronto Stock Exchange.
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