Western Australia is on alert as Tropical Cyclone Narelle is forecast to re-form and move south, bringing heavy rainfall of up to 80mm across multiple regions. In a rare weather shift, Perth is now expected to experience a significant weekend downpour — something meteorologists describe as highly unusual for the region.
The system, which has already traveled across northern Australia, is now entering a critical phase that could see it intensify again and impact the western coastline.
Unusual Cyclone Path Raises Concern
Cyclone Narelle has taken an extraordinary path, moving across Queensland, the Northern Territory, and now into Western Australia. After crossing the NT-WA border earlier this week, the system delivered intense rainfall, including 146.2mm recorded in Kalumburu within 24 hours.
Although it weakened into a tropical low, forecasts indicate that Narelle is likely to re-intensify into a cyclone again, with strengthening winds expected to rebuild the system.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), the cyclone could reach Category 4 strength by Friday before approaching WA’s coastline in the Gascoyne or Mid West regions.
Perth Faces Rare Rainfall Event
While Perth is unlikely to experience a direct cyclone hit, the city is firmly in line for significant rainfall and storm activity.
- Rain expected to begin: Friday
- Peak rainfall period: Saturday
- Estimated rainfall: 20–50mm on Saturday
- Additional rainfall: Up to 30mm on Sunday
This level of rainfall is notable for Perth, where such tropical influences are rare. The Bureau has warned that widespread rain and localized heavy falls could lead to waterlogging, reduced visibility, and minor flooding in low-lying areas.
Wheatbelt and Great Southern at Higher Risk
Regional areas are expected to bear the brunt of the system’s rainfall intensity.
The Central Wheatbelt and Great Southern regions could receive:
- 60–80mm of rainfall by Saturday
- Additional widespread rain on Sunday
- Isolated falls up to 50mm in some areas
These rainfall levels could impact agriculture, road conditions, and local infrastructure, particularly in areas prone to runoff and soil erosion.
Why This Event Is So Rare
Meteorologists stress that it is “very uncommon” for cyclones to affect the southern half of Western Australia. Typically, cyclones lose strength as they move south due to cooler ocean temperatures.
However, changing climate patterns are beginning to alter these expectations.
Warmer ocean temperatures along WA’s coastline are allowing systems like Narelle to maintain strength further south than usual. According to climate data from NASA Climate, rising sea surface temperatures are increasing the likelihood of unusual weather behavior globally.
This means that while direct cyclone hits in Perth remain rare, the city may see more frequent impacts from tropical lows and cyclone remnants in the future.
Expected Impact Across Western Australia
Even without a direct landfall in Perth, the broader impact of Cyclone Narelle could be significant.
- Widespread heavy rainfall across southern WA
- Flash flooding risks in urban and rural areas
- Strong wind gusts accompanying rain bands
- Travel disruptions over the weekend
The exact severity will depend on the cyclone’s final track and intensity as it approaches land.
Historical Cyclones Show Potential Risk
While rare, past events highlight the potential severity of such systems.
Cyclone Seroja (2021) caused major structural damage in WA towns like Kalbarri and Northampton, while Perth experienced heavy rainfall.
Even more destructive was Cyclone Alby (1978), which remains one of the most devastating storms in the region’s history. It caused widespread power outages, destroyed infrastructure, and resulted in fatalities across the South West.
These examples demonstrate that even weakened systems can cause significant disruption when they move into southern regions.
How Residents Should Prepare
Authorities are urging residents to prepare early, especially with the weekend approaching.
- Clear gutters to prevent overflow and water damage
- Secure outdoor furniture, trampolines, and loose items
- Remove garden debris that could become airborne
- Prepare for possible power outages and travel disruptions
These precautions are particularly important if strong winds develop alongside heavy rainfall.
Outlook: A Weekend to Watch Closely
The coming days will be critical in determining how severe Cyclone Narelle’s impact will be across Western Australia.
Forecasters emphasize that small changes in the cyclone’s path could significantly alter rainfall distribution, particularly for Perth and surrounding regions.
For now, the message is clear — prepare for a wet, potentially disruptive weekend.
Bottom line: Cyclone Narelle may not directly hit Perth, but its influence will bring rare and heavy rainfall that could impact daily life across WA. Staying informed and prepared will be key as the situation develops.
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