US equity futures drifted lower Friday as investors weighed a pivotal inflation report, fresh geopolitical risks, and renewed concerns about stress in private credit markets.
Contracts tied to the Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) and the S&P 500 futures (ES=F) slipped around 0.2%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) also edged down roughly 0.2%, snapping momentum after the blue-chip index logged a three-day winning streak on Thursday.
Markets opened the session in a cautious stance, reflecting a mix of macro uncertainty and event risk that could shape expectations for Federal Reserve policy through the remainder of 2026.
Inflation and Growth in Focus
The market’s immediate attention is fixed on two critical data points: December PCE inflation and fourth-quarter US GDP.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — is expected to rise to an annual pace of 3%, according to consensus estimates. Core PCE strips out food and energy prices and plays a central role in shaping the Fed’s rate path.
Meanwhile, preliminary fourth-quarter GDP is forecast to show the US economy cooling, though still expanding at a solid 3% annualized pace. Growth likely softened due to disruptions linked to the federal government shutdown, but economists do not expect a sharp deceleration.
Together, the data could recalibrate expectations for interest-rate cuts later this year. Investors remain sensitive to any signal that inflation remains sticky, potentially delaying monetary easing.
Private Credit Concerns Intensify
Wall Street is also monitoring stress signals from the private credit sector after affiliates of Blue Owl (OWL) halted investor withdrawals earlier this week. Fears have surfaced that the move could represent a “canary in the coal mine” moment reminiscent of early financial crisis tremors.
Blue Owl shares continued to weaken in premarket trading after the firm disclosed it sold $1.4 billion in private loans — including loans extended to its own affiliated insurer.
Market participants are particularly alert to exposure within private credit portfolios to software stocks that may face disruption from artificial intelligence trends. The interplay between AI-driven valuation shifts and illiquid credit structures has raised concerns over leverage and transparency risks in the sector.
US-Iran Tensions Add to Volatility
Geopolitical risk remains another layer of uncertainty. President Trump said he would decide within 10 days whether to authorize military strikes unless a nuclear agreement is reached with Iran.
Oil prices initially climbed on geopolitical anxiety but later retreated, reflecting relief that an immediate full-scale conflict appears unlikely. Energy markets remain highly sensitive to any developments in the Middle East, with crude swings feeding directly into inflation expectations.
Supreme Court Tariff Decision Looms
Investors are also watching for a potential ruling from the US Supreme Court regarding the legality of Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs. A decision could arrive as soon as Friday.
Multiple outcomes remain possible. However, markets are expected to react swiftly given the implications for global trade, supply chains, and corporate earnings.
Weekly Performance Snapshot
Despite Friday’s cautious tone, the broader week shows modest resilience:
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) is up 0.4% week to date. The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) is tracking a 0.6% gain, potentially snapping a five-week losing streak, while the Dow (^DJI) is down roughly 0.2%.
Premarket Movers
Chemours (CC) dropped around 9% before the opening bell after reporting a $47 million fourth-quarter loss. The company posted a loss of 31 cents per share, while adjusted earnings of 5 cents per share exceeded Wall Street expectations. Revenue totaled $1.33 billion, matching analyst forecasts.
Grail (GRAL) shares plunged more than 40% in premarket trading after its Galleri multi-cancer screening test did not produce a statistically significant reduction in late-stage cancers in a UK NHS trial of more than 142,000 participants aged 50 to 77. The company highlighted a favorable trend across 12 deadly cancer types.
Live Nation (LYV) rose more than 3% after reporting an 11% increase in fourth-quarter revenue to $6.31 billion, supported by a 12% surge in concert sales.
AppLovin (APP) climbed roughly 5% in premarket trading following its earnings release and plans to launch a new social networking platform.
Opendoor (OPEN) rallied 14% after reporting a 46% quarter-over-quarter jump in home acquisition volume. Revenue reached $736 million, above Wall Street’s $576.94 million estimate. However, the company posted a fourth-quarter loss of $1.26 per share. Management expects first-quarter adjusted EBITDA losses between $30 million and $35 million, with revenue projected to decline about 10%.
Nvidia Expands Data Center Ambitions
Nvidia (NVDA) is pushing deeper into CPU territory traditionally dominated by Intel (INTC) and AMD (AMD).
The expanded partnership with Meta (META) will include rollout of Nvidia’s Grace CPU-only servers, marking the first large-scale deployment of those processors. Grace CPUs are paired with Blackwell GPUs in Nvidia’s GB200 and GB300 AI systems, but standalone servers highlight the company’s ambition to capture more total data center spending.
Nvidia–OpenAI Investment Talks
Separately, Reuters reported that Nvidia is close to finalizing a $30 billion investment into OpenAI, potentially replacing a previously agreed $100 billion long-term commitment. The deal would form part of a broader funding round that could value OpenAI at approximately $830 billion.
Nvidia declined to comment on the report, and Reuters said it could not immediately verify the Financial Times coverage.
Markets are now navigating a convergence of sticky inflation risk, geopolitical tension, private credit fragility, and intensifying competition in AI infrastructure — a backdrop that keeps volatility elevated heading into key economic releases.
