TSX futures are pushing higher today as a rebound in gold and oil prices lifts sentiment across Canada’s commodity-heavy market, with traders staying alert ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes.
Early pricing in index-linked contracts pointed to a firmer tone for Toronto after a softer prior session. March futures tied to Canada’s main benchmark were last indicated up around 0.3% to 0.5%, while TSX 60 futures were recently quoted near 549, up about 1.6% on the day.
Commodities turn from drag to tailwind
Tuesday’s weakness in the TSX was largely driven by sliding commodities, which hit mining and energy shares and helped pull the benchmark down about 0.5%. Today’s shift is being powered by a broad rebound:
Gold rose about 0.7% and silver climbed roughly 2.9%, while copper also steadied on bargain buying after recent declines. For a market where materials and energy often set the tone, even modest price swings can quickly translate into index momentum.
Oil rebounds, but caution remains
Crude prices also recovered after a sharp drop the previous day. Brent and WTI were both up about 0.5% after falling more than 2% on Tuesday.
Traders are still balancing the bounce against geopolitical headlines and supply uncertainty. Comments suggesting progress in U.S.–Iran talks offered a fresh angle for the market to price, but caution remains elevated as investors weigh what any diplomatic movement could mean for future supply and risk premiums.
Rates focus: Fed minutes next, PCE on deck
With U.S. policy expectations driving global risk appetite, investors are watching the Fed minutes for clues on how officials are thinking about inflation progress and the timing of potential easing. Futures markets have leaned toward a first U.S. rate cut around June, a view that can shift quickly with new inflation and labor data.
Friday’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation report is the next major checkpoint. If the data reinforces a cooling trend, it could keep the pressure on bond yields and support equities and precious metals.
For a quick snapshot of how markets are pricing the next Fed move, traders often reference the CME FedWatch Tool as the minutes and inflation data land.
Canada backdrop: housing hit by winter storm
At home, the latest data showed Canadian home sales fell 5.8% in January, with activity affected by a severe winter storm. The slowdown adds another layer to the growth picture at a time when markets are already sensitive to rate expectations.
Recent inflation figures have also helped reset expectations for the Bank of Canada’s next steps. With annual inflation cooling to around 2.3%, traders have been more open to the idea that the next move in 2026 could ultimately be a cut rather than a hike, depending on how growth and price pressures evolve.
What to watch at the open
The near-term direction for Canadian equities is likely to hinge on whether the commodity rebound holds and how investors interpret the Fed minutes. If gold and oil stay bid, the TSX’s leadership groups could regain traction, especially after a session where commodity-linked sectors were the main drag.
For more on how recent sector rebounds have been driving Toronto’s tape, you can also read: TSX today surges 316 points to 33,212 as energy and banks rebound.
